What is referred to as an inflation shock?

An inflation shock refers to a sudden and unexpected change in the rate of inflation that deviates from what consumers, businesses, and policymakers had anticipated. This can occur due to various factors such as supply chain disruptions, sudden changes in demand, geopolitical events, or monetary policy adjustments that were not forecasted.

When inflation unexpectedly increases, it can lead to significant effects on economic behavior. For instance, consumers may alter their spending habits if they anticipate further price increases, and businesses might adjust their pricing strategies or wage policies in response to higher costs. This unexpected shift creates uncertainty in the economy, impacting investment decisions and overall economic stability.

In contrast, a gradual rise in prices indicates a more predictable and manageable inflationary environment, while a consistent decrease in price levels, known as deflation, would not be categorized as an inflation shock. Lastly, a stable inflation environment signifies that inflation is within expected levels, with no surprises or deviations. Therefore, the definition of an inflation shock aligns best with the notion of a sudden deviation from expected inflation.